People walk in Harvard Yard at Harvard University on April 15, 2025, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Photo: AFP

Reports and data show that many Chinese students are thinking twice on studying in the US this summer partly due to swaying US visa policies. The Trump administration suspended visa interviews on May 27 and Secretary of State Marco Rubio once threatened to revoke Chinese students' visas. Though the visa interviews were resumed on June 18, several Chinese students and study abroad consultants told the Global Times that scrutiny on social media accounts appears to have intensified. 

Analyzing Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) and US State Department data, a report by NAFSA, an association of international educators, on Tuesday predicted a potential 30 to 40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the US this fall, contributing to a 15 percent drop in overall enrollment. Such an outcome would deprive local US economies of $7 billion in spending and more than 60,000 jobs.

For a long time, Chinese students applying for US visas have composed a major section of the lines outside American embassy and consulates in summer months, but changes are happening this summer. 

The postponed visa processing and the "uncertainty," a word that has been mentioned frequently by students and education consultants reached by the Global Times, have dampened many students' confidence in studying in the US. 

US higher education portal Inside Higher Ed, reported on July 17 that the Department of State issued 22 percent fewer F-1 visas in May 2025 compared to the May before, and 13 percent decline in J-1 visas. The number of Chinese nationals issued a F-1 visa in May declined by 15 percent (or about 2,578 students).

The Institute of International Education found that 40 percent of institutions projected declines in their undergraduate population of international students, and 49 percent anticipated a drop in graduate student populations. And a NAFSA survey of about 150 members institutions this summer found 78 percent of institutions predict a decline in both undergrad and graduate international students. 

Liu Wei, senior vice president of New Channel International Education Group and CEO of its overseas study division, told the Global Times that based on cases his company handled, visa issuance for applicants of undergraduate and doctoral programs remain stable, while issuance for master's degree programs saw a drop of 20 to 30 percent. 

A Shanghai-based overseas education consultant surnamed He told the Global Times that the drop is true among her clients. No higher rate of rejection has been observed, but the visa process is way slower with policy-caused postponement. 

Another reason is that lots of students abandoned summer research or summer schools in the US due to policy uncertainty. The suspension of visa interview was at a time when students usually actively contact American professors for summer programs. For fear of visa issue, some of them turned to European institutions while some chose to stay in China, He said. 

A junior year student surnamed Wang abandoned the plan to do research in the US this summer for concern over visa issue. Wang instead stayed as a research assistant at his own professor's project. "I used to be steadfast for pursuing graduate studies in the US, therefore actively contacted opportunities in the US, but now I am less certain," Wang told the Global Times. 

The consultant He particularly mentioned that every March to September is the peak season for students to sign contracts with them, but their new clients for US application dropped 30-40 percent this year, indicating applicants for American universities could shrink further in fall if there is no pickup soon. 

Study Portal released on May 27 that international student interest in the US falls to the lowest level since mid-pandemic. 

"Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall," NAFSA warned. 

Also the tightened vetting of social media has caused confusion and anxiety among applicants, even if no specific case of visa rejection for this reason was reported by consultants and students reached. 

A Chinese student who required anonymity shared that reserving an interview slot has been really difficult, partly due to the system disruption and resulting postponement. 

Many applicants were given a white note for not providing enough materials for social media. In most cases, they can be granted a visa a few days after supplementing materials required. But a common feeling is that visa processing is slower, and considering the postponement, quite a number of new students would "have to miss their opening ceremony," the student said.    

Among He's clients there has been no case of rejection due to social media remarks, but the policy has a psychological impact - a sense of uncertainty that would change students' studying plans. 

Liu attributed tightening visa reviews as a reason behind the drop in student visas. In high-tech disciplines and "sensitive" majors, administrative processing, known as "check," are more likely. There is no clear "bans," but the practice has constituted a barrier, Liu said. 

Zou Dan, a supervisor of US graduate department at New Oriental Vision Overseas' Chongqing branch, told the Global Times that based on her observation, roughly 60 percent of applicants for master programs in biotechnology and materials are subject to "checks" while the rate for computer science and electronics is beyond 40 percent.

For students who still want to study in the US but face visa problems, Liu suggested they apply for deferring enrollment with the university, which is a rather common practice in the US.

When some students continue on this bumpier road of studying in the US, others are diversifying the applications or turning totally to an alternative country. 

Consultant He told the Global Times that policy uncertainty has thwarted students' decisions to study in the US. "They are fear of visa rejection, visa renewal, sudden status cancellation, continuation of funding and recognition of degrees…" 

"Australia and Singapore now become popular destinations, particularly Australia as its reverse academic season would give students more flexibility to adjust their plans," He said. 

Zou said that Singapore and Hong Kong are popular destinations for being in the vicinity of Chinese mainland, public safety, costs and value of diploma, adding that Canada and Australia are also popular options.